NFL playoff picture: Eagles-Lions scenarios, three teams eliminated

The Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) defeated the Baltimore Ravens (8-5) Sunday, keeping pace with the Detroit Lions (11-1) in the race for the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

There is only one path where the Eagles win a tiebreaker against the Lions with a 15-2 record — win out and root for Detroit to lose to the Green Bay Packers (9-3) in Week 14 on Thursday Night Football. That would give both teams a 10-2 conference record, with the Birds winning the next tiebreaker with a better record against common opponents.

Otherwise, the Eagles will need the Lions to lose at least two games to have a realistic shot at overtaking Detroit and securing the NFC’s top playoff spot. The Chicago Bears (4-8) could’ve helped the Eagles’ chances on Thanksgiving, but lost to the Lions in such an idiotic way — letting the clock expire while still having a timeout to use — Chicago fired head coach Mark Eberflus less than 24 hours later.

The good news is the Eagles have an easier schedule down the stretch, at least on paper, with three of their final five games coming against teams with losing records. Overall the Eagles’ remaining opponents have a record of 27-43, while the Lions opponents have a 37-21 record and include the Buffalo Bills (9-2) and Minnesota Vikings (10-2).

The Eagles’ magic number to clinch the playoffs is three. After that, it’s all up in the air, thanks to a tight NFC playoff race and the Washington Commanders (8-5) remaining in contention for the NFC East.

If the playoffs started today, the Eagles would have the No. 2 seed and host the Commanders at the Linc in the wild-card round.

Despite the Commanders blowing out the Tennessee Titans (3-9) on Sunday, the Eagles remain 2.5 games ahead of Washington in the NFC East with just five games to play.

If the Eagles win their next two games against the Carolina Panthers (3-9) and Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3), and the Commanders lose against the New Orleans Saints (4-8) in Week 15, the Birds will clinch the NFC East and a spot in the playoffs, regardless of the outcome of the Eagles’ Dec. 22 game against the Commanders in Week 16.

The Dallas Cowboys (5-7) remain alive in the playoff hunt, but barely. Even after their Thanksgiving Day victory against the lowly New York Giants (2-10), the Cowboys have just a 1% chance to make the playoffs, according to the New York Times’ playoff simulator.

Meanwhile, the Giants’ loss officially eliminated them from the playoffs. While Saquon Barkley is having an MVP-caliber season in Philly, the Giants will take a $22.2 million salary cap hit next year after granting quarterback Daniel Jones’ request to be released rather than demoted, according to Spotrac.

The Lions could’ve clinched a playoff spot Sunday, but their chances were spoiled by the Seattle Seahawks (7-5) narrow win against the New York Jets (3-9). So the soonest Detroit can clinch a playoff spot would be next week.

Things are too close in the NFC for anyone else to secure a postseason spot or be eliminated. In the NFC North, the Minnesota Vikings (10-2) win over the Arizona Cardinals (6-6) kept them just one game behind the Lions, while the Packers remained two games back thanks to their Thanksgiving day win against the Miami Dolphins (5-7).

All for NFC West teams remain in contention for the division, while in the NFC South the Atlanta Falcons (6-6) remain in a tight race with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6).

The Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) became the first team to clinch a playoff berth Friday afternoon, thanks to the Las Vegas Raiders (2-10) fumbling away the chance at a potential game-winning field goal on Black Friday. The loss officially eliminated the Raiders from the playoffs.

The Buffalo Bills (10-2) clinched the AFC East for the fifth straight season after defeating the San Francisco 49ers (5-7) in the snow on Sunday Night Football. The Bills are the first NFL team in 16 seasons to clinch a division title with five weeks remaining, but they still need the Chiefs to lose at least one more game to have a shot at the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

The New England Patriots (3-10) were eliminated from the playoffs Sunday, and the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) will be officially out if the Denver Broncos (7-5) defeat the Cleveland Browns (3-8) on Monday Night Football, according to NFL playoffs analyst Joe Ferreira.

Byes: None

The NFL playoffs begin with the wild-card round on Saturday, Jan. 11, which will feature six games airing on Fox, CBS, NBC, and ESPN/ABC.

For the second straight season, one wild-card game will stream exclusively on Peacock, NBC’s subscription service.