Alec Bohm is available, but are the Phillies overestimating his trade value?

Hop into the DeLorean, throw it in reverse, and time-travel to Oct. 9 in New York. There’s Alec Bohm, after the Phillies were vanquished in the division series, handling questions about his future more easily than he fields grounders to third base.

“I know where I’ll be next year,” he said.

Back here in the present, Bohm can’t feel nearly as certain.

» READ MORE: Let’s make a deal: Trade ideas for the ‘open-minded’ Phillies with Alec Bohm, Ranger Suárez, and more

Because in two months, the 28-year-old has morphed into a human trade rumor. He has been linked to the Royals, Reds, and Mariners, among other teams, and it’s more than idle hot-stove speculation. The Phillies have made it known that Bohm is available, multiple major league sources confirmed this week, as they try to change the dynamics of the lineup.

And with all 30 teams set to gather Sunday at the Hilton Anatole in Dallas for baseball’s annual winter meetings, it isn’t a grand exaggeration to suggest that one question is hovering over the Phillies' offseason.

What is Bohm’s value?

On one hand, we’re talking about the National League third baseman in the All-Star Game this year. Bohm batted .280 with 44 doubles, 15 home runs, and a .779 OPS. In the last two seasons, he piled up 194 RBIs, 15th among all hitters, and was 12% more productive than league average, based on OPS+.

And he’s under club control at a reasonable salary through arbitration for two more seasons, making him easier to trade and more desirable than, say, Nick Castellanos, who is owed $40 million through 2026. Bohm is projected to make $8 million in 2025. He was worth $28 million this year, according to Fangraphs’ WAR-to-dollars formula.

Surely, then, the Phillies should expect a considerable return for Bohm. After the best season of his career, they might even be selling high. The Seattle Times reported that they asked the Mariners for one of top-flight starters Logan Gilbert or George Kirby.

But if that’s the price for Bohm, multiple evaluators opined this week that the Phillies might be overvaluing him.

» READ MORE: The Phillies don’t want to move Bryce Harper back to the outfield. Given the free-agent alternatives to Juan Soto, maybe they should.

One scout from an NL team characterized him as “more of a solid everyday guy than an All-Star” and expressed familiar concerns about his defense. Another figured that Bohm, drafted third overall in 2018, would be “a layer better” than he has been five years into his major-league career. A third, who rated Bohm as “a tick above an average major-league player,” suggested that he benefits from batting in the middle of a strong lineup and wondered if he could carry a lesser one.

And when Bohm got benched for Game 2 against the Mets by notably steady-Eddie manager Rob Thomson, it resurfaced a few yellow flags within the organization and externally about his emotional maturity amid adversity.

So, which is it? Is Bohm closer to an All-Star or an Average Joe? Can the Phillies get an impact major-league player for him? And if he’s so good, why would they trade him in the first place?

Let’s dive in.

In three previous offseasons with Dave Dombrowski at the wheel, the Phillies plugged roster holes with owner John Middleton’s money.

It’s more complicated now. Outfield is the Phillies’ greatest positional need. But beyond Juan Soto, with whom they didn’t meet because of their expectation (stated publicly by Middleton) that he wants to stay in New York, most of the free-agent options lack appeal.

» READ MORE: Andrew Painter is healthy and pitching again. Here’s how the Phillies are planning for his return in 2025.

The Phillies also committed $222.75 million to 13 players in 2025 and have roughly $26 million set aside for five arbitration-eligible players. Without making a single move this winter, the payroll is projected at $278 million for luxury tax purposes, nearing the third tax threshold of $281 million.

So, even though Middleton said last month that he expects to boost the franchise-record payroll again from this year’s $261 million outlay, it’s no wonder Dombrowski says the Phillies will be “open-minded” in how they try to improve the roster.

It makes sense, too, that Bohm’s numbers — at the plate and contractually — would net a solid return in a trade, although it hardly means he’s a goner.

“Alec Bohm’s a good player,” Dombrowski said in October. “He knocked in close to 100 runs two years in a row. He’s one of the top hitters in the league. He’s improved defensively. He had an outstanding first half of the season and not an Alec Bohm second half of the season. But he overall is a really good player.”

Indeed, Bohm is a .312 hitter with an .809 OPS in his career with runners in scoring position and the Phillies’ best righty-hitting protection for Bryce Harper. He also has bat-to-ball skills that differentiate him from many other hitters in the lineup. His 14.2% strikeout rate last season was far better than both the Phillies’ (22.3%) and league (22.6%) averages.

The Phillies lack a plug-and-play replacement at third base. Edmundo Sosa fits better as a utility infielder than an everyday player. Top prospect Aidan Miller finished last season at double A and is likely a year away from the majors.

» READ MORE: The Phillies have to get creative to improve. That includes their hitters’ approach. Is that realistic?

Alex Bregman would be a convenient free-agent solution, with plate discipline that the Phillies crave and a winning pedigree in Houston. But his market figures to be robust, especially among the teams that miss out on Soto.

The Cardinals are open to trading Nolan Arenado, although they would have to pay down some of the $74 million he is owed through 2027. He also will turn 34 in April, with home run totals and an OPS that have declined in each of the last three seasons.

Yet if the Phillies are able to swap Bohm to fill one need — the Brewers' Devin Williams, Cardinals' Ryan Helsley, and Rays' Pete Fairbanks are among the closers who may be on the move — it might be worth addressing third base later.

Unless they can’t get as much for Bohm as they think.

In each of the last three seasons, Bohm had one month that reflects his ceiling as a middle-of-the-order machine.

But over the other 15 months, he was a .259 hitter with a .398 slugging percentage and .700 OPS. He surpassed an .800 OPS in only three of those months.

» READ MORE: From July: Alec Bohm’s place with the Phillies was in question two years ago. Now he’s starting in the All-Star Game.

At times, there were explanations. In September, for instance, Bohm missed two weeks with a bruised hand and finished in an 8-for-47 tailspin before going 1-for-13 in the division series against the Mets.

Generally, though, Bohm has trended toward the mean. From May 1 through the end of the season, he had a .713 OPS. League average over that span was .714. Despite his massive 6-foot-5 frame, he has one 20-homer season.

One scout pointed to Bohm’s struggles with high velocity as holding him back from making a true star turn. He was significantly better this season, batting .313 against fastballs clocked at 97 mph or more. In 2023 and 2022, he batted .114 and .229, respectively.

Then, there are the questions about Bohm’s maturity. He plays with emotion, and early in his career, a frustrating at-bat would cause a lapse in concentration at third base.

In 2022, after the infamous three-error game in which he was mock-cheered for making a routine play and caught on camera saying, “I hate this [expletive] place,” Bohm was challenged by tough-loving infield coach Bobby Dickerson. It was a career turning point.

But the Phillies were disappointed in Bohm’s handling of his late-season struggles. Thomson, known for sticking with players even amid brutal slumps, benched Bohm for a postseason game. He cited the “energy” that Sosa brings to the lineup, which was interpreted as a juxtaposition with Bohm’s hangdog manner.

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Surely, the rest of the league took notice.

It’s unlikely to dissuade a third base-needy team — the Mariners, Brewers, or Royals, for instance — from having interest in Bohm. But could it contribute to driving down his value, even after an All-Star season?

Maybe. Then again, as a fourth NL scout put it, “A reliable everyday right-handed hitter with pop will bring a desirable return, for sure.”

Just maybe not as much as the Phillies initially expected.